Seed Demand Forecasting
The assessment of effective seed requirement is critical to any planned seed programme. The underlying principle in making demand forecasting should be that the seed supply keeps place with seed demand ( both present and future ) in terms of quantity , quality, price, place and time. The outcome of such approach would be planned seed production and marketing would also avoid shortage and gluts and as well as ensure stable price and profits.
In Making Demand Forecast, the following Factors must be Considered Carefully:
a) Total cultivated acerage, seed rate, quantity replacement period and assessment of total potential seed requirement of each important crop.
b) Impact of extension efforts on the introduction of improved production techniques and future plans for promotion.
c) Current acerage under high yielding varieties and amount of seed sold in last year.
d) Cultivar preference for varieties, package, kind of packing, quality and price.
e) Number and size of competition.
f) Kinds of publicity and sales promotion those are most effective.
g) Climate of the area where seed is being marketed.
Assessment of potential effective seed demand of the market based on total seed requirement is very little value, since the demand for high quality seed normally exists for crop area which is under good fertility and irrigated condition. The requirement for the remaining crop area covered by uncontrolled production material obtained from the preveious crop production. Further more, experience shows that the varietal purity and the yield potential of high quality seed of self pollinating varieties can be maintained by farmers during reproduction processes, without significant deterioration for three to four generation. Therefore individual farmers not only need to replace seed of self pollinated varieties every third year or fourth year. Thus demand for high quality seed of self pollinated crop is not higher than 25-30 percent of total requirement for area under crop.
A rather different approach must be taken 19 n marketing of hybrid seed, in which case new seed is needed by the farmer each season. Although, the critical period may be rather difficult the subsequent planning is easier, particular after sales statistics are seen to point in certain direction.
The dealers need to make periodic surveys of the market areas to determine market potential, at least one season in advance. Dealer advance orders should be treated as information material to aid production sector in organizing an effective production programme.